Nuclear Policy of Russia: Publications

From Stalin to Putin: Russian Strategic Culture in the XXI Century, Its Continuity, and Change

By Polina Sinovets

The last two years have attracted the world’s attention to Russia. The annexation of Crimea, the hybrid war in Eastern Ukraine, and finally the unexpected interference in Syria—all these actions bring us back to the question of understanding the Russian motivation properly. Generally, it includes the whole interpretation of Russian strategic culture which is based on the research and analysis of the different factors: from literature and history to religion and political nature of the Russian state. Significant attempts to understand Moscow’s strategic culture were made by the American experts during the Cold War; therefore the article analyzes the main pillars of Russian strategic culture, its continuity and change in comparison to Soviet times as well as the main reactions of Moscow for what it considers to be a threat.

Download

The Role of Nuclear Weapons in Russia’s Worldview: Policy Implications

By Polina Sinovets

Nuclear weapons occupy a special place in the policy of Russia. Moreover they have become a part of Russian strategic culture, initially built around the idea of a strong military state. The author argue in this article that during the whole Russian history - from the Russian Empire till the Russian Federation of today - military power became the key institutional foundation of Russian statehood. The aim of the article is to analyze the connections between the Russian nuclear worldview and Russian state policy during the twenty-five years since the end of the Cold War.

Download

Russia's 2014 military doctrine and beyond: threat perceptions, capabilities and ambitions

By Polina Sinovets and Bettina Renz

New Russia's military doctrine is scrutinized in details. The authors argue that this document does not differ significantly from its previous versions: the main theme is rivalry with the West. The most important detail is that the doctrine has two audiences: internal and external. The reasons of Russia foreign and security policy that are explained in a different ways for these two target groups are analyzed.

Download

The role of Russia in the Ukrainian crisis of 2014: deterrence/coersion analysis and perspective

By Polina Sinovets (in Russian)

The article analyzes the participation of Russian Federation in the Ukrainian crisis of 2014, as well as the influence of the later at the nuclear deterrence practice. In particular, special attention is dedicated to the rationality / predictability of the Russian leader’s actions as well as his motivation towards Ukraine. The research is based at the certain elements of the deterrence theory, giving the possibility to give a deeper overview of the the situation and to forecast the possibilities to resolve the crisis in Ukraine.

Download

Ukraine and its Neighbourhood How to Deal with Aggressive Russia

By Polina Sinovets, Caterina Becker, Heidi Reisinger, Brooke Smith Windsor

The following report summarizes the core issues and findings of the discussion, obviously without covering every part of the intense and sometimes outspoken debate in its entirety. The conclusions are those of the authors, not necessarily reflecting consensus among Roundtable participants. Last year was a decisive one for Russia. It hosted the Winter Olympics, only to annex Crimea almost immediately afterwards and intervene directly in Eastern Ukraine. The friendly Olympic bear rapidly became a wild grizzly. Despite sanctions and the fall in oil prices, Russia is continuing to aggravate the conflict in Ukraine that started with the Russian invasion of Crimea. Why, and how? Some answers are provided below. The challenges faced by Ukraine and the West in calibrating an appropriate response are also explored. So, too, are the perspectives of several of Russia’s other neighbours.

Download