European Security: Publications

The Report "Responses to the INF Treaty crisis: The European dimension"

Edited by Polina Sinovets

The INF Treaty suspension, initiated by the United States and to certain extent provoked by Russia would ultimately primarily target Europe. And the question is whether Europe has the plan or the remedy to neutralize possible negative consequences for it, coming with the death of the Treaty in August 2019.

With the European INF Initiative Project we tried to answer this question with the central aim: to explore the potential consequences of the collapse of the INF Treaty for Europe. Another central goal of the project was to generate fresh and out-of-the-box thinking, as well as to discuss Europe‘s possible contribution(s) to strategic stability on the continent. The study covers six states, while their positions were explored by their national experts. Those states are: Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Ukraine. Ukraine is the only state which turns to be a non-NATO member in the study; however it presents special interest as the state-successor of the INF, missiles-capable producing country and the buffer zone between Russia and NATO.

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NATO's Nuclear Strategy: Changing Concept or Changing Circumstances?

By Tetiana Melnyk

The article focuses on different internal and external variables that influence the strategy‐making process at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Research is based on the declassified documents from 1949 to 1968 and non‐classified strategies from 1991 onwards. Cold War and post‐Cold War are usual ways of referring to years after the end of the Second World War. In the meantime, these two periods are not homogeneous and include very different sub‐periods with unique dynamic and conditions. Both nuclear deterrence and non‐proliferation issues are mainstreamed through these times but it’s a question of balance inside this pair that becomes decisive. The current situation is not an exception. Euro‐Atlantic security system is facing numerous new and old security challenges. It’s the ability to find an adequate response, adapt to the changing environment and agree on a new common strategy on the agenda.

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Europe’s nuclear woes: Mitigating the challenges of the next years

By Ulrich Kühn, Shatabhisha Shetty and Polina Sinovets

As long as the relationship between Russia and the West continues to be confrontational, the urgent task will be to stabilize and manage the confrontation. For NATO, this primarily means balancing deterrence and assurance measures to its easternmost allies without entering a new arms race. NATO should step up its efforts to foster talks with Russia on current military threats and on arms control, possibly by seeking reconstitution of the NATO-Russia Council as a crisis management forum and mechanism for dialog, dealing with dangerous military incidents and better communicating each side’s intentions. As for the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty crisis and the interlinked issue of the European missile defense, US officials should consider face-saving options to reassure Russia that Western missile defense installations have no offensive capabilities – provided that Russia convinces the new US administration that it has returned to compliance with the INF Treaty. Over the mid- to long-term, NATO and Russia must initiate a serious and open dialogue about the two core issues at stake – the freedom and sovereignty of states to seek alliance membership and the (contradicting) Russian interest of maintaining a sphere of influence over its “near abroad.” A well-prepared conference – akin to the 1975 Helsinki Summit, with various preceding rounds of consultations at ambassadorial level, and including the nonaligned states in Europe – might be a way to kick-start the discussion.

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The response of western civilization on modern security challenges of the challenge/response rule and the role of nuclear deterrence

Tetiana Melnyk

Western civilization exists for many centuries and has gone through a difficult path of struggle for its existence. Now it faces a whole complex of new and old threats. This article analyzes the A. Toynbee challenge/response concept (with different patterns and attitudes of historical responses) and its further modification in the framework of the synergetic approach. Seven features (ultrastability, hierarchy, nonlinearity, nonclosure, fluctuation, emergence) at two main stages of development (existence and development) are applied to modern realities of functioning of the North Atlantic security system. Article addresses main old (war and peace) and new (including proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, threats to information and energy security as well as piracy) security challenges. At the new international circumstances attempts to find an adequate response becomes even more difficult due to the mixed nature of challenges. Such actors as Russia tend to combine different tools from old and new challenges in so-called hybrid wars to maximize effectiveness of their actions. Proceeding from the above Western civilization needs to address different levels of such a threat simultaneously. Nuclear weapons on one side is overused by some actors and leaves them with the latitude to violate international law with impunity. But nuclear deterrence is crucial to stop and impact these actors by international community and responsible actors as a countermeasure on the other side.

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Key characteristics and trends of international terrorism

By Tetiana Melnyk

Terrorism today is a global problem. While having a long history this challenge has undergone significant transformation, which causes some difficulties in identifying it. Characteristics of the terrorism can be described through detailed classification. Here are some major features of the modern terrorism: global level, greater autonomy, flexibility, network structure, use of extremist interpretation of Islam.

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Ukrainian factor of the European Union foreign policy towards Eastern Partnership states: 2014 challenge

By Iryna Maksymenko (in Ukrainian)

The factors that determine the East-European Dimension of the European Union Foreign Policy is scrutinized in this article, with the special emphasis on security issues. According to the current policy of Russia towards western independent states and «Ukrainian crisis» effect new challenges and threats to security in the Eastern Partnership region are identified as well as their impact on the further transformation of EU foreign policy in the East.