European Security: Publications

Europe’s nuclear woes: Mitigating the challenges of the next years

By Ulrich Kühn, Shatabhisha Shetty and Polina Sinovets

As long as the relationship between Russia and the West continues to be confrontational, the urgent task will be to stabilize and manage the confrontation. For NATO, this primarily means balancing deterrence and assurance measures to its easternmost allies without entering a new arms race. NATO should step up its efforts to foster talks with Russia on current military threats and on arms control, possibly by seeking reconstitution of the NATO-Russia Council as a crisis management forum and mechanism for dialog, dealing with dangerous military incidents and better communicating each side’s intentions. As for the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty crisis and the interlinked issue of the European missile defense, US officials should consider face-saving options to reassure Russia that Western missile defense installations have no offensive capabilities – provided that Russia convinces the new US administration that it has returned to compliance with the INF Treaty. Over the mid- to long-term, NATO and Russia must initiate a serious and open dialogue about the two core issues at stake – the freedom and sovereignty of states to seek alliance membership and the (contradicting) Russian interest of maintaining a sphere of influence over its “near abroad.” A well-prepared conference – akin to the 1975 Helsinki Summit, with various preceding rounds of consultations at ambassadorial level, and including the nonaligned states in Europe – might be a way to kick-start the discussion.

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The response of western civilization on modern security challenges of the challenge/response rule and the role of nuclear deterrence

Tetiana Melnyk

Western civilization exists for many centuries and has gone through a difficult path of struggle for its existence. Now it faces a whole complex of new and old threats. This article analyzes the A. Toynbee challenge/response concept (with different patterns and attitudes of historical responses) and its further modification in the framework of the synergetic approach. Seven features (ultrastability, hierarchy, nonlinearity, nonclosure, fluctuation, emergence) at two main stages of development (existence and development) are applied to modern realities of functioning of the North Atlantic security system. Article addresses main old (war and peace) and new (including proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, threats to information and energy security as well as piracy) security challenges. At the new international circumstances attempts to find an adequate response becomes even more difficult due to the mixed nature of challenges. Such actors as Russia tend to combine different tools from old and new challenges in so-called hybrid wars to maximize effectiveness of their actions. Proceeding from the above Western civilization needs to address different levels of such a threat simultaneously. Nuclear weapons on one side is overused by some actors and leaves them with the latitude to violate international law with impunity. But nuclear deterrence is crucial to stop and impact these actors by international community and responsible actors as a countermeasure on the other side.

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Key characteristics and trends of international terrorism

By Tetiana Melnyk

Terrorism today is a global problem. While having a long history this challenge has undergone significant transformation, which causes some difficulties in identifying it. Characteristics of the terrorism can be described through detailed classification. Here are some major features of the modern terrorism: global level, greater autonomy, flexibility, network structure, use of extremist interpretation of Islam.

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Ukrainian factor of the European Union foreign policy towards Eastern Partnership states: 2014 challenge

By Iryna Maksymenko (in Ukrainian)

The factors that determine the East-European Dimension of the European Union Foreign Policy is scrutinized in this article, with the special emphasis on security issues. According to the current policy of Russia towards western independent states and «Ukrainian crisis» effect new challenges and threats to security in the Eastern Partnership region are identified as well as their impact on the further transformation of EU foreign policy in the East.