Nuclear Security: Publications

Western Dependence on Russian nuclear sector. How not to throw the nuclear baby out with the bath water

By Wojciech Jakóbik, energy sector analyst, Jagiellonian Institute

The West needs to decrease reliance on Russians in nuclear fuel supply chain. It will take years so the room for strict nuclear sanctions against Russian nuclear sector is limited. However there is a clear interest in binding goals of decreasing reliance on Russians. It could also be a way to support developing domestic capacity in this manner.

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SIPRI Research Policy Paper "Nuclear security in Ukraine and the Black Sea Region: New Threats, New Risks, New Consequences"

By Vitaly Fedchenko, Wilfred Wan, Polina Sinovets and Iryna Maksymenko

Questions about nuclear security—whether smuggling of nuclear material or loss of radioactive sources—have been common in the Black Sea region over the past three decades. The Russian military’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and its attacks on and purported annexation of Ukrainian nuclear installations presented further—and extraordinary—nuclear safety, security and safeguards challenges. As well as their significant impact on the international nuclear security regime, they necessitate changes in the national nuclear security regimes of Ukraine and the other states of the Black Sea region.1 What are those changes? What other changes will potentially be necessary? How do the nuclear security officials in those states perceive the new nuclear security threats relevant to them? How do they plan or propose to address those threats?

This SIPRI Research Policy Paper addresses these questions, highlighting special challenges that arise from dealing with nuclear security threats in extraordinary circumstances.

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Why Russia may control Turkey’s nuclear energy for the next 80 years

By Muhammed Ali Alkis and Valeriia Gergiieva

In May 2023, Turkey’s first nuclear reactor will receive its first fresh fuel. The Akkuyu nuclear power plant—which includes four units of Russian-designed VVER-1200 reactors—is expected to be fully operational by 2026. But this progress is happening amid growing concerns over the stability of Turkish-Russian nuclear cooperation.
Turkey already imports natural gas from Russia, and the nuclear agreement would create more dependence on Russia—for nuclear technology, nuclear fuel, and training of staff to operate the nuclear power plant. This comes with no small amount of risk; Russia has shown it can use energy dependence as a tool in political bargaining.

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"Dirty Bombs": Weapons of mass disruptions

By Muhammed Ali Alkis for Indian Strategic Studies Forum

There have been many discussions about the “dirty bomb” recently. However, these discussions also brought some confusion about the level of destruction if a dirty bomb is used during an attack. The discussions started with an unfounded claim in conversations with the countries’ defence ministers made by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. According to summaries of Shoigu’s calls posted by the Russian Ministry of Defense, he told defense officials Sunday that he was concerned about “possible provocations by Ukraine with the use of a ‘dirty bomb,’ and noted that the situation in Ukraine is “rapidly deteriorating.” 

Following the calls, a Joint Statement on Ukraine was released by the Governments of the United States of America, France, and the United Kingdom by rejecting Russia’s transparently false allegations that Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb on its territory. In this regard, the article attempts to inform the readers about what a dirty bomb is and what is the level of destruction it would cause.

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Nuclear Security and Nuclear Security Culture: An Overview

By Muhammed Ali Alkis

The article attempts to define what nuclear security means and give a historical background about factors that have shaped the international nuclear security approach. Then, the article briefly touches upon various international mechanisms which are components of the nuclear security regime. Finally, the article highlights the importance of nuclear security culture, which requires all relevant stakeholders to take responsibility in relation to nuclear security

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Nuclear Security During Armed Conflict. A contribution to the Nuclear Security Policy Menu series

By Muhammed Ali Alkis for Stimson Center

The war in Ukraine has impacted the safety and security of the country’s nuclear power plants, threatening civilian populations and exposing gaps in the international nuclear security regime. As a low-carbon energy source, nuclear energy is likely to play a key role in achieving net-zero goals by 2050, including in new nuclear energy states in unstable regions prone to armed conflict. Closing those gaps in the international nuclear security framework has never been more urgent.

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Seven Indispensable Pillars of Nuclear Safety and Security

By Muhammed Ali Alkis for Indian Strategic Studies Forum

Nuclear technology is an essential part of global solutions for all humanity. Yet, nuclear technology has been seriously concerned for various reasons, some of which are recently human-made tensions. In this regard, the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine caused tensions as Ukrainian nuclear power plants (NPP) have become a part of the invasion. Although nuclear power plants have a more robust protection infrastructure, it is clear that they are not designed for war zones. In this vein, the article evaluates the Seven Indispensable Pillars of Nuclear Safety and Security which were outlined by the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at a meeting of the IAEA’s Board of Governors on 2 March, convened to address the safety, security and safeguards implications of the situation in Ukraine. The article will highlight and overview the importance of the Seven Pillars, which gained worldwide support from the Member States.

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Nuclear Security: A Case Study of Zaporizhzhia

By Muhammed Ali Alkis for Indian Strategic Studies Forum

Nuclear energy is an energy source with the lowest carbon footprint, and it offers solutions to the challenges of climate change and the energy crisis. This is why many states, committed to net-zero carbon goals, are expected to invest in nuclear technology to achieve their 2050 goals. However, nuclear technology has been a source of concern since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian War in 2022, either as nuclear weapons or nuclear power plants, which are not designed for war zones. In this vein, the article evaluates the situation in Ukraine, especially in Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), from a nuclear security and safety perspective. The article also details the worst-case scenarios involving the conflict around the Zaporizhzhia NPP. It should be noted at the beginning that the article does not address any political concerns related to the Russian-Ukrainian War but focuses on its ramifications on nuclear security.

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Youth, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament: Recommendations from Early-Career Experts to the Non-Proliferation Treaty

By Muhammed Ali Alkis et al.

In October 2019, the Permanent Representative of the Republic of Korea to the United Nations, Cho Tae-yul, introduced the then draft United Nations General Assembly resolution on youth, disarmament and non-proliferation to the First Committee of the General Assembly, noting that the resolution forms part of the contribution of the Republic of Korea to championing action 38 of the SecretaryGeneral’s disarmament agenda. In his remarks, the Permanent Representative affirmed that empowering youth in the Agenda for Disarmament1 and non-proliferation is meaningful not merely for creating diversity in the sector, but for “nurturing young experts who will lead our collective efforts in the future” and creating “positive momentum for disarmament discussions that have been polarized and remained at a standstill for quite some time”. 2 The Assembly reaffirmed the important and positive contribution that young people can make in sustaining peace and security through its unanimous support of its biennial resolution on youth, disarmament and non-proliferation, adopted on 12 December 2019 (resolution 74/64) and on 6 December 2021 (resolution 76/45).

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Threat of Nuclear Terrorism: The Developing Nuclear Security Regime

By Muhammed Ali Alkis

Terrorism has always been a part of human history in various forms. However, it had not been such a clear and present danger until the 9/11 attacks. After the 9/11 attacks, terrorism evolved into a new kind of terrorism only aiming to change a system with sensational attacks that cause so many deaths. Today, it poses a threat in the form of nuclear terrorism. Its potential rate of lethality could not be compared with any other forms of terrorism if terrorists managed to detonate an intact nuclear weapon or an improvised nuclear device. In addition, the psychological effects of sabotaging a nuclear facility or exploding a “dirty bomb” would be much more powerful than any other form of terrorism. In response, states have already started to cooperate through various international responses, collectively known as nuclear security. But, nuclear security is still developing and seems not yet strong enough to effectively cope with the threat of nuclear terrorism. On the other hand, there is the international nuclear nonproliferation regime based on the three pillars of nuclear nonproliferation, the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and nuclear disarmament. However, its scope is limited to address threats stemming from traditional state actors such as nuclear war and proliferation. Nonetheless, this regime still offers a useful base for nuclear security to develop a more effective framework for international responses to the threat of nuclear terrorism. The inspiration and guidance of the international nuclear nonproliferation regime would lead to more effective nuclear security.

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